Wednesday, May 27, 2009

What Do Jim Flaherty and Don Drummond Have In Common?

Both were way off on their projections for the 2009 federal deficit. Where do they differ? Well, Michael Ignatieff thinks Flaherty is incompetent and should be fired for not getting the figures right.

On the other hand, Ignatieff thinks enough of Drummond's skills that he has consulted him on the Liberal platform involving Canada's economy. So I wonder if Mr. Ignatieff will now dismiss Don Drummond as incompetent for getting his figures off by $10 billion in two months?

Monday, March 16, 2009
The recession is going to force the federal government much deeper into deficit than it forecast in its last budget, according to the Toronto-Dominion bank."The result is [an] all-time high deficit of $39.2 billion in fiscal 2009-10 and $42.3 billion in fiscal 2010-11," said Toronto-Dominion chief economist Don Drummond in a statement.
"[It's] well above the red ink of $33.7 billion and $29.8 billion shown in the budget. Still, as a share of GDP, the budget shortfalls will be considerably lower than the 5-8% levels recorded during the 1980s and early 1990s."

p.s. This post is not meant to disparage Don Drummond, who I think is one of the best economists in our country. What it is meant to do is show the top experts in finance are still struggling to figure out what's going to happen, Flaherty included.

12 comments:

revanche said...

The Dept of Finance consults with a large pool of Don Drummonds, averages their results and plots a line down the middle. That is the best you can do with the social sciences.

Still, I would like to hear the CPC plans to trim the size of government. Of course, it would be nearly impossible to sell that in a minority government.

The budget is simply a reflection of a Parliament dominated by left of center demands. It is what it is.

paulsstuff said...

Exactly. If the PM cut $1 dollar of spending on anything the opposition parties would be right back to their hidden agenda, anti-immigrant, anti-woman whining.

Anonymous said...

I am perplexed at why CBC and CTV and other media continue to use Don Drummond as an arm's length talking head financial expert when he is now working for the Liberal party again.

He was once Paul Martin's deputy minister of finance. Recently Ignatieff recruited him and two other old Liberals to write the Liberal platform.

Does the media think we are stupid??? Drummond is not non partisan and has a personal vested interest in trashing the Conservatives.

And, he is but one of hundreds - nay- thousands upon thousands of so called dinancial analysts world wide who did not correctly predict the extent of this downturn.

Maybe every finance minister in the entire world should be fired as the logical extension of denabds for Flaherty to be fired.

Can anyone point to even one country or financial analyst who were right about how this is all unfolding?

jm said...

Paging Kevin Page...paging Kevin Page.

Liberals must have fired him. The guy that they loved throwing out there to make the CPC look bad got it wrong also!

wilson said...

Got 15 minutes, Kevin Page is interviewed by Paikin, ver interesting

http://www2.macleans.ca/tag/kevin-page/

wilson said...

shud have posted this link, for future reference's sake

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/05/27/paikin-v-page/

Bec said...

The whole process is subjective and that is the part no one ever talks about because they are all..EXPERTS.

So many things were contingent on other things happening and they should and will.
The market will correct itself, it always does but when you have idiots, causing 90% of the market because of their overreaction or under reaction, crap happens.

The American protectionism, completely predictable was IMHO, not factored in.
The Americans are causing the slow recovery.
Mostly because of the idiots that believe they are the only nation that has any intellect.
They are like that, trust me and the Canadian Opposition, has one of their very own!

Powell lucas said...

I would dearly love the Bloc and the NDP to call Iggy's bluff and say they will support a non-confidence motion. The Bloc could do it before they lose anymore ground to the Liberals in Quebec and the NDP could go for broke since they are irrelevant and nothing they can do will resurrect their fortunes. How would the Liberals explain to the nation that they brought down the government in the middle of a recession and facing a $50 billion deficit, over increased EI funding? Go for it Iggy!!

Anonymous said...

They have nothing in common. drummond is a knowldgeable money manager and Flaherty is a doofus.

Harper/Flaherty are not up to the challenge of fiscal manageent. These past 6 months have been a disaster. And these clowns don't know what is going on.

wilson said...

Gilles has nothing to be concerned about when it comes to Iffy.
The Cons lay one truth ad on him and his/Lib numbers are going down.
Crop poll has Duceppe back on top.

Duceppe will turn the poseur into mincemeat, he just hasn't started.

Dippers won't go for an election, because they want that stimulus money out.
Jack may be a lot of things I don't like, but IMO he genuinely cares about people.

Liberals care about not looking like whimps any longer, and will force Jack to take one for Canadians.
Sad.

paulsstuff said...

Anon @9:09.

It looks like you have no clue that the government budget projections are based on information supplie by the banks and economists. Drummond included.

Calgary Junkie said...

If Iggy is foolish enough to bring in a non-confidence motion over EI changes, then Jack can safely vote against it. Jack's spin will be along the lines that Iggy only wants temporary changes to EI. Plus, further to what Wilson is saying, Jack can point out that a summer election will delay the stimulus money, which is cruel to working families, etc etc.

It is instructive to read Harper's Team where Tom Flanagan points out the challenges Harper, Duceppe and Layton had in all getting on the same page to bring down Martin over Adscam, in Nov 2005. Layton was the last one to get on board to pull the trigger.

I just don't get the sense that the three Opps leaders are huddling to find a reason, method and timing to bring Harper down.