Sunday, August 23, 2009

New Poll Puts Conservatives At 39%

From the National Post via NNW:

OTTAWA -- Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservatives have surged to a big lead over the opposition Liberals in the eyes of Canadian voters, reveals a new poll, a trend that could dampen speculation of a fall election.

In a discouraging sign for the Liberals, party leader Michael Ignatieff trails the prime minister on bread-and-butter issues at the forefront of many Canadians' minds, such as the ability to steer the economy through recovery and rebalance the country's finances. If the trend continues, Ignatieff could soon be facing roughly the same poll numbers as his beleaguered predecessor, Stephane Dion.

The Conservatives now command 39% in support among decided voters, compared with 28% for the Liberals, according to the survey, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National by Ipsos Reid. Since the last Ipsos poll two months ago, the Tories have climbed five percentage points, while the Grits have slumped seven points.

The NDP stand in third at 14% of the vote, up one point; followed by the Green party at 10%, up two points. The Bloc Quebecois posted 8% in support nationally, while 7% of respondents were undecided.

The poll comes amid speculation that the government could fall shortly after Parliament returns from summer break on Sept. 14. Last spring, Harper and Ignatieff averted a summer election by agreeing to form a bipartisan working gr


Fitter said...

Best news I've heard in weeks. Think maybe I'll have another beer.

qwerty1 said...

So Don Martin spilled the beans yesterday in his column. Not surprising as he does work for the National Post. I would guess

Anonymous said...

Whoops, hit the publish to soon.

I would guess he wanted to create buzz for the poll or thought it was going to be released Saturday.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

Wow! I am so hoping that Iggy pulls the plug in September.

Conservative Majority, here we come!!!

Hoarfrost said...

If you forecast a majority then it will drive the people in the Left of centre to vote strategically to avoid a majority.

I say that this majority talk should be played down in case it backfires.

Brrr said...

It sure looks good, but let's not get too excited until we see that this is a trend and not an outlier!

Joanne (True Blue) said...

I say that this majority talk should be played down in case it backfires.

Good point.

C'mon Iggy. I'm sure you can eke out a minority at least. Please go for it.

Lycan Stark said...

If you forecast a majority then it will drive the people in the Left of centre to vote strategically to avoid a majority.
I say that this majority talk should be played down in case it backfires.

Hoarfrost, that may have been true before, but that was much more the case in 2004 and to a lesser extent, 2006. After two successive minority governments, the Tories just aren't seen as the scary boogey-man that Liberal attack ads said they would be.

And in addition, there is one key difference - based on the fact that they are a known factor, the Tories aren't musing about the prospect of a majority government; they will be asking the people to provide them with the stability in government that these tough economic times require instead of having someone like Ignatieff (and Dion prior) constantly threatening to topple the government but backing off until the next time.

And why shouldn't they? Do the Liberals have a divine right to a majority government, or even a minority?

qwerty1 said...

If there is an election soon, the prevailing question will come down: Do you want a Conservative majority or a coalition of the Bloc, NDP and Liberals running the country?
I just can not see the Liberal getting a majority with the current political set up.

frmgrl said...

These numbers are pretty good. At the same time Obama's numbers are tanking. That should tell the Libs and the Dippers something.

I do hope though these numbers at least hold and ya we do need to see a trend.

Don't forget PM Harper is a good campaigner, so is Gilles for that matter. Iggy still untested.

Eric said...

I have trouble believing this poll.

Its really... I don't know how to describe it... bizarre? Counter-intuitive?

I can't see any reason that there would be such a sudden shift to Harper. I mean, the Liberals are raking in cash now comparable to the Tories, why would their popular support drop so much?

Bec said...

As a Canadian that has spent almost an entire summer away from the media, I think it is fine to speculate on what other Canadians may be thinking during a summer poll.

My experience in Ontario was astonishing. I expected negativity and a downtrodden, beaten up group. What I found (Whitby/Oshawa) was an very communicative and receptive group that was willing to engage in positive political dialogue.
None of the 'scary things' happened and they are ready and rolling.

I felt very encouraged and the only negative thing that occurred was the irony of being on the 401 and 410 and witnessing the countless cars with only one person.
Meanwhile, the 'go train' was void of a full load in either the cars or stations.
Rather ironic, considering the nanny boss at the helm?

Thanks Ontario! Super time.

paulsstuff said...

"I can't see any reason that there would be such a sudden shift to Harper. I mean, the Liberals are raking in cash now comparable to the Tories, why would their popular support drop so much?"

You need to put the Liberal fundraising numbers in perspective, most notably the number of donors. Libs managed to get those with deep pockets to donate the full $1100 to the party, riding association, and leadership contender. Within the rules but does make the fundraising figure needed to be taken with a grain of salt.

Conservatives scored over 38% in the last election. As the economy dropped so did Conservative polling numbers, and what is happening now is as the economy turns around so do/will Conservative polling numbers.

Like Bec, I am in the Ajax/Whitby/Oshawa area. Things are booming everywhere you look here. Auto parts plants that were thought to have closed for good are now reopening. Chrysler in Brampton will be building four new models in 2010. Plants in southern Ontario have already been awarded parts ontracts are are currently setting up the plants for production.

Both Chrysler and GM now have overtime scheduled for the remainder of the year. I myself now work for Mazda, and we too are booming. 50 hour weeks are the norm for me, and an average Saturday for the dealership is in the area of 14 cars sold.

Eric said...


Sure that is true, the CPC has more donors than the Liberals, but..

I'm just saying, I don't tend to believe in massive shifts of public support so rapidly without a strong reason.

Maybe the better (?) economic news is helping out, and it could be those catchy ads about the 'home renovation tax credit' are paying political dividends by making the government seen as visibly working. But I'm still suspicious.

Take this one with a grain of salt.

paulsstuff said...

I agree Eric. I do believe the Conservatives are again leading in the polls, but the 11% number seems a little off to me as well. The last internal polling had the Conservatives around 35%, Libs at 30%, three weeks ago, so I too find this huge gap a little hard to believe.

Although I want too:0)

hunter said...

It could be an outlier, and Ipsos does not have the results up at their site yet, I imagine they will tomorrow.

What is the reason, probably a combination of lots of things, like Iggy being nowhere except Europe this summer, the NDP not even being able to vote on a name change, and Lizzy busy buying a house in a riding she has never lived in.

Maybe voters are just happy with what the Conservatives have done and realize the opposition is useless. It could be that simple.

Hoarfrost said...

Don't hang your hat on the recent uptick in the stock market and the seemingly stronger economy. There could be serious bad news on the horizen depending on what is going on in China's economy.

BC Voice of Reason said...

I think the momentum has started and will swing harder in the next few months.

Harper's steadiness and resolve in this crisis is getting the apprecition that it deserves.

The Budget called for $60 oil... it was near 50 at the time and now is now above 70. When we were near the bottom the tar sands companies were putting $90B of projects on hold citing the need for $70.

There will be so many jobs in the West that even Stelmach will have a hard time messing it up.

Meanwhile since the bureaucracy took so long to get the stimulus money out... there is not that much of it spent. There will be no need to really spend it and the deficit will be a lot smaller and get paid off quicker than anyone has forecast...

Anonymous said...

We can't forget that fact that Iggy hurt himself badly at the end of June in the eyes of the Canadian public and media. He looked weak when the PM told him to get stuffed on allowing for EI benefits after only 8 weeks of employment. He is hurting himself by not introducing policies. He just sits and criticizes. Canadians can see through that kind of thing. So now they are saying that Harper deserves credit and the Libs need to get the message we don't much like you guys.

frmgrl said...

If this is truly a trend then it will scare the bejeebers out the Libs and their cheerleader MSM.
Expect a full frontal assault from them in the coming weeks. What the Libs and the MSM don't want is a Conservative majority. They will try every trick in the book to prevent one. Mark my words!

So we are going to have to be ready to counter.

treb said...

Nothing baffling here ERIC...PM Harper is doing a fantastic job and more and more Canadians are finally seeing that.Plus the fact that the coalition has still not made one policy announcement.With Leyton taking pictures of himself,Iggy on vacation,Ellie May shooting off her mouth at every bus stop and that other idiot running loose in La Belle province with the other dingaling separatists,do you not think the Canadian voter has had enough of this idiotic coalition behaviour and is now ready to thank PM Harper for steering them through this recession without too much pain,while fighting the MSM and the opposition parties along the way.I would say it,s about time PM Harper was given a big majority and it would be well deserved.

KellyR said...

This was to be expected.

A summer of BBQ's, ribbon-cutting ceremonies, waving the flag and an ad campaign trumpeting Canada's Economic Plan is an easy 5 points in the polls when the House is in recess.

This is all part of the incumbent advantage. Since the Tories have been relatively scandal-free, Canadians are rewarding them for their steady hand on the tiller.

Score one for the good guys ;)

wilson said...

'I can't see any reason that there would be such a sudden shift to Harper.'

Kids go back to school in a week,
so all those 'families' are now home and answering their phones.

A full week of an interesting/inspiring media covered Northern visit.

Fear that the Coalition of Losers will again try to seize power, lead by Danny's Boy.

KellyR said...

It is also apparent the CPC numbers are pretty resilient, even during economic downturns.

It's starting to sink in, that majority governments will never be the norm while the Bloc is around.

Like it or not, the choice for Canadians in the next election will be the Tories vs the Coalition.

Calgary Junkie said...

These kind of polling numbers obviously add considerably to the many advantages Harper already has. But he shouldn't change his message--that Parliament should get back to work, we don't need political instability now, yadda yadda.

This is not the time to play hardball, as that could easily backfire. We don't want any sympathy going towards "poor picked on Iggy", certainly no pooping puffins.

Iggy is going to have his hands full with his caucus. So it's best to just leave the Libs alone and let them do what they do best--fight each other.

Michael Harkov said...

What never fails to amaze me is that despite the worst economic downturn in recent memory, the Tories are STILL polling above the Liberals when usually, its the other way around for the party in power by about 10-15 points.

That is telling - big time.

jad said...

I think it's actually very simple - voters are trying to send a message to all the Opposition parties that they don't want an election any time soon that could threaten the recovery.

frmgrl said...

Notice something too about this poll.
Only 7% of respondents are undecided.
That's something. Especially in this economy, you'd think even that number would be higher.

Jen said...

Let's not forget ever, that it was Ignatieff and the rest of the liberal party signed their names on the 'COALITION AGREEMENT'

Also, lets not forget that IGNATIEFF told a bunch of reporters "I have no intentions of wearing the recession on my shoulders."

Meanwhile, the prime minister together with the rest of canadians with sacrifces manage to pull through the recession even though it will take a while before everything is up and running.

The MSM is the major problem we face, they have shown no respect of any kind towards the prime minister and to all of us canadians who battled through the recession. Their constant insults and redicule and daily gloom and doom is enough for us to turn elsewhere for hope of good news.

After seven months into his presidency, Obama is tanking-people are not buying what he is selling.

Anonymous said...

Ignatieff has been successfully defined by the CPC war room.

Nicely done folks.

It also proves the MSM dead wrong in their spinning.

Jen said...

A cure for election fever

National Post
Published: Tuesday, August 25, 2009

We're not all that surprised by the results of the latest CanWest News Service and Global National poll, conducted last week by Ipsos Reid, which shows the federal Tories with an 11-point lead on the Liberals. The government has handled the economy about as well as any in the industrialized world, and Prime Minister Stephen Harper has acquitted himself admirably at international summits and in the Arctic this summer. By comparison, Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff........

Jen said...

A cure for election fever

Rich said...

Michael Harkov said...
What never fails to amaze me is that despite the worst economic downturn in recent memory.

Good comment, one possible reason for the uptick in support for the Cons could possibly be that the PM said back in October/November that the Canadian people should see and improvement in the economy; and that with the lower stock market prices would generate good buying opportunities. Also the PM's performance on the world stage at the G8, Summit of the Americas and promoting free trade with the Caribbean and South America.

However let's mot get overly excited on one poll, but watch for the trends.

Rich said...

September 1st, 2009 at 9:13 pm
Listen to the bluster and political rhetoric from Iggy, Bob bankrupt and company. How often have we heard such bluster from the Liberalsl; The opposition constantly states that the Conservatives do not want to work with the opposition parties, yet the opposition parties constantly past bills that try to put additional cost on the government. EG the Dippers moved a motion to implement the EI reforms to 360 hours worked, and did not even bother to say how they would pay for it. This motion was adopted by all opposition parties. However these motions that envolve the expenditure of money is not binding on the government; it is only the government that can enact money bills.

Let’s see what happens on Sept 3oth, I imagine that the Libs will tank as they usually do and have done under Dion and Iggy.