Sunday, July 1, 2012

Ekos Frank Graves Gets Canadian History Wrong, And On Canada Day.

Story on iPolitics featuring a new poll by none other than Liberal adviser/psuedo political pollster Frank Graves from Ekos. Now you know that when the first line is factually incorrect, what's to follow is most likely wrong as well. And Graves doesn't disappoint.

 Example 1: "For the first time ever, the federal New Democrats are leading in voting intention across the country." Note to Frank. The NDP led the polls shortly after Ed Broadbent being named leader of the federal NDP. They led both the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives.

 Example 2: "A new poll from EKOS and iPolitics shows the NDP sitting at 32.4 per cent nationally. The Conservatives sit second, having slipped to 29.3 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 19.2 per cent." Interesting. All recent polls had both the Conservatives and NDP at around 35%. Looks like he got the Liberal number right, but used his vast political polling experience to lower the Conservative number. I also notice Graves never ever mentions his crystal ball prediction that PM Harper wouldn't win a majority in the 2011 election. Also noteworthy is Graves missed the actual percentage by 5% for Conservative voters. He also had the Conservatives at 31.5% in December 2011 as well as February 2012.

Example 3: "The major notable factor here is a pretty alarming for the government, decline in support,” EKOS president Frank Graves said. “They’ve lost over 11 points of support and to see a government that secured a majority under 30 points one year later, I think is pretty well unprecedented". Unprecedented? Doesn't that mean it never happened before. Like when Mulroney went from 47% to 31% after the 1984 election? Ditto Chretien, who saw support drop dramtically as a result of breaking his promise to scrap the GST. Both went on to win the following elections by the way Frank.

 Example 4: :Canadians are also showing signs of losing confidence in the direction of the country. Only 44.5 per cent of those polled said they felt Canada was moving in the right direction, while almost the same (43.8 per cent) feel it’s moving in the right direction.
Those numbers are “really lousy leading indicators,” Graves said, and could also be “quite meaningful.”

“Typically those numbers should be much higher, particularly this early in an administration,” he said

 Note to Frank. While it's true the Conservatives won their majority in 2011, they had already been in power since January 2006, and have won 3 elections in a row, upping their seat count consecutively each election.

Happy Canada Day everyone. Luckily we on the right have a better grasp of our history than Liberal pollsters like Graves

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