Received an interesting email from someone well connected to what goes on in the HoC. It appears that a coalition between the Liberals, NDP, and yes, the Bloc is still very much on the table. The difference this time is the three parties learned their lesson well from Canadians after the last debacle, with Dion, Layton, and Duceppe calling a formal news conference to inform Canadians about their coalition. Outrage among Canadians was quite amazing, with polls showing the Conservatives in the mid to high 40's as outrage spread across the country.
And yet, those same three parties are still talking about said coalition, albeit this one behind the scenes, out of the view of Canadian voters. Realizing a formal coalition between the three parties is akin to political suicide, the parties are now working towards the same goal as the previous agreement, while at the same time keeping voters unaware of their plan. Whenever the next election takes place, Conservatives will focus on the threat of a coalition government.
Phase 1 of the new coalition is to try and blunt that attack. Thus you now have Layton and Duceppe voting with the government. You have Ignatieff stating he will fast track the EI reforms. While the usual suspects claim this to be posturing among Lib and Dipper strategists to get the upper hand, what it really is is an attempt to say to Canadians, Hey, Stephen Harper worked with each of the parties, why can't the three parties work together as well?
Phase 2 will be the Liberals tabling a non-confidence motion, with Layton and Duceppe joining in with that tired old-line about the PM going back to his old ways, refusing to work with the other parties, and therefore the necessity to vote down the government.
Phase 3 consists of telling Canadians they agree we don't want an election, and approaching the GG to ask for a chance to form government. The goal is to remove the PM before the economy and Conservative polling numbers picks up even more steam, allowing them to say it was themselves who are responsible for the economic turnaround.
In effect they will be doing what most Canadians have already stated was unacceptable, achieve power without having to win an election, something none of the three parties realize they could achieve themselves. And if they have to throw the Canadian voters under the bus to achieve it, they won't think twice.
Political sleaze at its best!
And the coalition agreement doesn't expire till 2011.
ReplyDeleteI think a lot of us have believed that it is still an ongoing plan. Iggy's stmt, you time is up was just an attempt to make us forget it.
I don't think the GG would go for it, and if they tried it and failed, and it resulted in an election, the PM might beat Brian's record of seats won. They can't go to the GG, it is the PM who calls the shot, and I doubt he would recommend a coalition.
Regardless, it will be an issue whenever the election comes.
Remember that this is the Liberal Party, known thieves and masters of sleaze, coupled with Socialists that historically have been willing to do ANYTHING to impose their will on the people.
ReplyDeletePlease, what ever you do, don't say
"It can't happen here"
Phase 3, is the kicker and would be an enormous gamble.
ReplyDeleteThe Bloc,would still hold the balance of power and as a regional federal party, unacceptable.
I do not believe that the Governor General would accept this alternative, ever.
We can reverse this arrogant thinking by the Coalition troika, to include the many, many compromises the government has made to ALL members of the troika.
Thus, validating their efforts to 'make parliament work'.
Jack, didn't even read the January budget and proudly voted against them 79 times.
Michael, did read the January budget, made some demands, received them and voted for the budget and with the government 79 times.
So I ask, how does this validate either of these parties sincerely convincing the GG that THEY can work together any better than the current situation?
These 2 parties have DISAGREED WITH EACH OTHER.....79 TIMES!!
......and they expect anyone to take their interest in the country seriously?
No, they have only one interest.
Or, they could form coalitions in each riding. This was from last election, before the formal coalition.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KmuSY9Rmsc
And the coalition agreement doesn't expire till 2011.
ReplyDeleteGood point. We haven't got any evidence that it has been ripped up.
My headline on last weeks events:
ReplyDelete'PMSH makes minority parliament work.'
Once again, the Prime Minister has been able to gain the support of one of the 3 opposition parties,
again extending the life of PM Harper's second , and historically longest running minority government.
IMO, the opps just proved to the GG that PMSH is making parliament work.
When Iffy traded places with Ducey and Jack,
the one common denominator was confidence in the government.
Every party has supported the government.
Think about that, and Bec's:
These 2 parties have DISAGREED WITH EACH OTHER.....79 TIMES!!
(LibDippers had never voted the same way)
The GG gave PMSH his prorogue,
ReplyDeletethe GG will give PMSH an election.
IMO, if asked, the GG will turn to Canadians to decide if they want a coalition government.
Largely because of the failed coalition attempt, with Canadians absolutely outraged, feeling betrayed.
And there is no indication in public opinion that such an arrangement would be acceptable now,
when it was met with nation wide protest in December.
Everything that has been happening lately is all just a ruse and a clever disguise.
ReplyDeleteThe three buffoons are up to something. And that something is a coup.
When the time is right, they’ll unexpectedly defeat the Conservatives and attempt to seize power without an election. They will use the argument that “Canadians don’t want an election”. Every thing that’s going on now is to establish a narrative to legitimize the illegitimate. The Toronto media is at the ready and will immediately unleash a massive, full frontal, blitzkrieg propaganda campaign in support of the Coup.
Layton and Duceppe can’t be trusted. They’re power hungry schemers.
And what about Iggnoramus? Let’s see, he and his backers had his seat in Parliament awarded to him in a totally underhanded manner. They then proceeded to eliminate all opposition in the Liberal Party leadership race, where by they were “Selected, not Elected”. So the big question is, why would they change their ways now!
Past behavior is the truest indicator of future behavior.
Please don’t tell me that the GG would never allow this coup to happen. You may be right but don’t you think that they don’t know that too? Well, they do. You can count on them doing some serious conniving to get past that obstacle. Snakes can slither through the smallest of opening.
I hope I’m totally wrong about all this, but theirs a plausible argument for what I’ve said here. The good news would be that the Conservatives have to be war gaming this, or a similar scenario and undoubtedly are working on countering them with a check mate.
“Beware and expect the unexpected”
The GG and her husband are well known separatists so I don't think she will object to the Bloc holding the veto.
ReplyDeleteI suspect like a lot of Westerners, we have been keeping our powder dry since 2006. A coalition and MI et al will need a passport when they cross the Manitoba border
ReplyDelete'You can count on them doing some serious conniving to get past that obstacle.'
ReplyDeleteI don't doubt that for a moment Blame Crash.
But, once again, at least 155 opposition MPs will have to go into 'written agreement', to prove to the GG that they can provide stable government.
That's a huge gamble that the GG will hand over government,
particulary following
1. Iffy just said he wouldn't go into a coalition
2. the government obtaining the confidence of the House on
the budget and both ways and means motions,
and every critical confidence motion since Jan 2006.
Remember too,
it is entirely a decision of the government what is to be considered a 'confidence motion'.
The Martin government used this power when the opps tried to bring down his government.
Iggy's comments about the Bloc being the devil will also be brought to the GG's attention.
ReplyDeleteThese are all frightening prospects. I just hope that if they do play out, it'll be after the Olympics as opposed to before. Imagine the Coalition taking power right before the Olympics... that would be horrific.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I don't think this Coalition would sell with the Canadian public. The public is already sick of these political games. With Dion, at least he was elected to leadership of the Liberals, and he had lead his party through an election. He is dedicated to Canada. With Ignatieff, it would basically seem like he flew all the way from Harvard into 24 Sussex drive just like that. The outrage would be incredible.
"The GG and her husband are well known separatists so I don't think she will object to the Bloc holding the veto."
ReplyDeleteI would respectfully disagree with this entire statement and question what useful purpose it serves?
Despite the GG's politics ( and we DO NOT KNOW, frankly) she has shown herself to put Canada first and represent us with enormous class and dignity.
Originally, I sat in your camp as well but she has earned my trust and respect and with the exception of her Obama gushing in February and has earned a gold star imo.
If there is a Coalition- separation among provinces with take place.
ReplyDelete"Originally, I sat in your camp as well but she has earned my trust and respect and with the exception of her Obama gushing in February and has earned a gold star imo."
ReplyDeleteI agree 100% Bec. I think she is an excellant representative for Canada, and I have nothing but respect for the job she has done.
I am a stalwart defender of the canadian Crown and was extremely dubious of HM GG Michaele jean. Her Excellency has won me over. Her Loyal greetings at Victoria Day and Her Excellency's stalweart support of our troops make me sure she will act in the best interest of Canada.
ReplyDeleteIf iggy tries a cooalition, the grits are finished for good.
The GG would not do this. After any such move, there will be outrage (again), as the polls will immediately show that we Canadians DO want an election, after all. She will call upon PM Harper, as this is the route she must go. Her mail box was full last December.
ReplyDeleteMichael Ignegative just appointed himself unelected leader of the NDP , just after he stole their green jobs plan . He decided that it's time for the NDP to decide and outlined his green jobs plan , ( sound familiar ?) from his enchanted forest .--http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Politics/2009/09/20/11014541-cp.html
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/grits-go-green-in-latest-ad/article1294618/
An ambitous man is mr Ignegative
Perhaps we should start a poll, would you prefer a coalition coup or an election.
ReplyDelete''The coalition, he told a gathering in Montreal last weekend, would have “profoundly and durably divided the country.”
ReplyDelete“There was also a question concerning the legitimacy of the coalition that troubled me,”
...coalition partners had “in some sense or another stolen power.”
“That was my first doubt. I couldn’t guarantee the long-term stability of the coalition.”
'' I didn’t think it was right for someone who believes in the national unity of my country to make a deal with people who want to split the country up.”
Macleans, May 21, 2009
"...And on the weekend, Ignatieff said the coalition government would have been unstable, politically illegitimate to many Canadians
and divisive - one report quoted him as saying it would have "profoundly, profoundly and durably divided the country."
Montreal Gazette May 12, 2009
Personally, I can't see Phase 3 happen unless there were another election with a reduced Tory mandate.
ReplyDeleteThen I could see the coalition rearing its ugly head again. No problem.
Patsplace,
ReplyDeleteCredit where credit is due but the NDP are at least as good as stealing from the public purse as the Lieberals.
Like Jo, I don't think Phase 3 can happen. If the GG did not turn to the coalition last fall, she won't do it a year after the last election. The precedent is of course Joe Clark, who was allowed an election after only 7 months of government.
ReplyDeleteI think some genius in the OLO has come up with this scenario as a way of blaming Harper for causing the election. The coalition will campaign on "we didn't want an election, it was Mr. Harper that forced it". It's kind of like the boy who murdered his parents, then threw himself on the mercy of the courts because he was an orphan. Typical Liberal double-think - cause a problem then blame the other guy.
There are lots of decent people who work hard within the liberal party because they believe in some set of values I don't see. Bring on Stage 3 and I bet they'll have a hard time finding people to drive old ladies to the polls next election.
ReplyDeleteTo those who say Phase 3 couldn't happen review the ascent without election of Michael Ignatieff to the head of the Liberal party and than tell me you doubt he is capable.
I Don't trust them one bit so hope SH finds a way to force the issue and win a big mandate.
This is off topic and I have no e-mail to contact you with.
ReplyDeleteIt would be most appreciative if you could help publicize that there are CAW Conservatives.
Jeff Watson, MP is a former Chrysler line worker and CAW member.
Rick Fuschi, former Conservative candidate of Windsor/Tecumseh is another former Chrysler line worker and CAW member and fellow blogger.
The present candidate for Windsor/Tecumseh ,Denise Ghanam is an automotive analyst and CAW committee member that sat on three boards.
Time to stop the free ride for the NDP, who have brought nothing to the people of Canada and nevr will.