With both the NDP and Bloc vowing to vote against the ways and means budget vote this Friday, a summer election sits squarely on Michael Ignatieff's shoulders. Liberal strategists Warren Kinsella and David Herle have both publicly stated that they want the election now, as the economy is beginning to rebound, and that as the economy improves itself, so will Conservative polling numbers and their electoral chances in a future election(not too bright a comment to make publically).
The first thing that comes to my mind is the recent Conservative attack ads, as the media like to call them. If we do end up going into an election campaign, those ads, combined with Kinsella and Herle's comments, will be used to reinforce in voters minds that Iggy truly is only in it for himself and the Liberal Party. That in itself would probably not be enough to guarantee an electoral victory for the PM.
Iggy's bigger problem is if an election does occur, all those comments by Iggy, McCallum, Goodale and company about getting stimulus out in time for the construction season to save Canadians from the economic recession will be shown for what they are. Partisan tripe and fear mongering. I've lost track of how many times I've heard Iggy and company mention construction season, and what it will mean for Canadians if that stimulus money doesn't get out in time. Another of their favorite phrases is "shovel-ready". Both Layton and Duceppe have also used the same language when describing the need for quick stimulus funding. Where they differ is they voted against the budget, whereas Iggy endorsed it.
The problem now is that should we fall into a summer election, any chance of stimulus funds getting out the door will have evaporated. Instead we will be faced with a minimum 37 day campaign. Whoever the victor is shall have to wait for the house to again begin sitting, at which time a new budget will be tabled. The fact is the only way these stimulus projects will come to fruition this year is if Iggy supports the vote Friday clearing the way for the money earmarked in the budget to be released to provinces and municipalities. Failing to do so will result in no stimulus funds going out the door until at least late this year and more likely next spring, which makes Iggy's whining about the need for stimulus ending up being rather hypocritical.
So all that remains to be seen now, is whether Iggy wants to cancel construction season.
Is it not possible for the Liberals to approve the esimates and then move non-confidence on some ground like the isotope crisis
ReplyDeleteThey might try it but would look ridiculous. From what I heard the budget vote is set for Friday night, meaning Liberals would have to put forth a non-confidence vote prior, killing the stimulus funding. Friday is also the last day the house sits before summer recess.
ReplyDeleteThe estimates is a confidence vote.
ReplyDeleteHow can Iffy and gang vote confidence and non-confidence a few hours apart?
The GG would tell the Opps to quit with the games.
It was the liberals themselves that made Drastic Cuts to INFRASTRUCTURE, HEALTH, EDUCATION, MILITARY, PROVINCES ETC... for their own personal use by claiming the CUTS as a Surplus.
ReplyDeleteHad the liberals not made those DRASTIC CUTS so as to phoney claim them as a surplus, the prime minister would not have to deal with them in a huge bulk today.
Iggy will give his decision on Monday. The vote will be on Friday. If he decides to force an election I'd imagine a lot of Conservative ads during the week featuring Iggyism's like "Canada needs an election like a hole in the head."
ReplyDeleteAnon, will Iggy give the PM a whole week to run truth ads. Of course the cbc wont run them, so his platform could be axing the place. Watch for nomination meetings, all conservatives are in place so we only need 165 more. libs have only got 10 so far in Quebec, so needs 65 there alone.
ReplyDeleteAnd considering Iggy has laid down strick rules to allow sitting mps to be uncontested, it could be fun watching. Maybe we have to take out lib memberships in our riding to nominate the least qualified.
Anyone else get a caller re a poll, I said I was undecided between Iggy/Layton. Bet I am not the only one who lies to them.
ReplyDeleteLast election I got polled twice by Ekos. First time I answered Conservative, it then went on to ask my second choice.
ReplyDeleteA week later I was polled again, this time I answered Liberal. Never asked for my second choice. Nanos did the same thing in the last election.
Possible truth ad,
ReplyDeleteTo all canadians, and especially those in areas that were expecting employment and stimulus money.
For years the spending estimates have and must be voted on in June, to implement the budget.
We regret to inform you that the ndp/liberals and bloc have decided the money, jobs and stimulus are not important.
And then, for months the ndp has been saying money and jobs must flow faster. He is well aware it can't flow till the estimates are voted on in June. He has voted against this money and programs from the beginning. Speaking out of both sides of his mouth.
Just wondering if someone gave him a daisy to make his decision.
It would be an interesting contest. The fact is the Conservative vote is very resilient and their base generally more motivated. Even if the Liberals won, it would likely be a very weak minority relying on both NDP and Bloc votes to pass legislation.
ReplyDeleteIn the last election, the Liberals denied emphatically they would entertain a coalition because they knew it would cost them 20% of their support. Do you think anyone will believe Iggy this time around? The question will come up, and yes, it will be a ballot question.
Chretien used to count on voters holding their nose and voting Liberal for lack of a serious alternative. Given a choice between reasonably competent government and the Coalition, I suggest many are as likely to hold their nose and vote CPC, especially in Ontario where even Liberals love their country more than they hate Tories. Or they might just stay home.
Either way, the Tories win and we are back where we started.
It seems the answer is NO to an election. Just have to wait to see how Iggy climbs down that hill.
ReplyDeleteJack and Gille have stated they do not want stimulus money or jobs to flow. Bankers are funny people, they have probably said no money, just go to London for your speech on July 8.
Wonder if his wife said, we are going to Europe, I need new clothes and Paris is calling.
It looks like the conservatives are not going to play, so if Ignatieff goes forward and votes against the estimates Friday, this means that the budget will not have passed and NONE of the stimulus money will get spent. To date, I think it's just the $3 billion extra fund that has actually been spent.
ReplyDeleteAlso, both the Chrysler and GM deals will unravel, which will give the US the excuse to pull the car companies out of Canada.
Any new government will have to put together a new budget and get it passed through the House, so essentially, the last six months will have been a total waste, and it will take the next six months simply to repeat the procedures.
We will have wasted a year in the middle of a recession doing absolutely nothing, just so that the Liberals can get back to government. Does Ignatieff have any idea what kind of a mess he is getting into here ???
No to an election, but will Iggy say yes to Coalition of the Idiots, Part II?? He'll say Harper's not co-operating, does not have the confidence of the house, Please, pretty please Mme. let we three stooges have a kick at the can?? Canadians don't want an election, let us have at it.
ReplyDeleteHey, stranger things have happened, why not that?
I don't think we've seen the end of the coalition.
I think all the opposition are secretly begging the PM to bend on EI, and I don't think he will.
ReplyDeleteThe EI question will not be important to the over 90% of working cdns. For that ndp woman to say she has seen no construction, well open your eyes.
Someone said an election will stop all the budget money going out and it will stop the Auto bailout.
For Layton to say he doesn't agree all stimulus will stop if the estimates are voted down, he should read the rules.
As for the GG to let the coalition rule, Iggy can't go to her, she has to call on him. His stmt there is no coalition tells me there is.
I would love to have the GG say to Iggy, I will allow the coalition on the following conditions, you and your caucus must all eat seal heart live on TV. Who dissed her in the media for that action.
o/t - attention all farmers!!
ReplyDeleteI just received a mailer from the Liberal Party of Canada. Anita Neville to be specific.
On the front of the folded 8x11 sheet is a very "Daisyesque" black and white photo of a young girl in the field of wheat(if you don't understand that this is pure Kinsella trying out an ad that worked in America many years ago. He speaks of it often in his books).
Open up the flyer and here's what it says verbatim
"Giving false hope to farm families
The Harper Conservatives like to make photo-op announcements of assistance to farmers, only to take the money away when the cameras are gone.
Like the $100 million a year announced in March 2007 for "cost-of-production-issues" - canclled in 2009 before a penny flowed.
Or the 2007 announcements of Agrilnvest and promises of money for value-added processing to help beef and hog farmers. Not delivered.
It's time for the Conservatives to keep their promises to farm families.
THERE'S A TEAR OFF PORTION IN CASE YOU WANT TO GIVE THE LPOC SOME SUGGESTIONS ON THIS ISSUE.
"Have the Harper Conservatives done enough to assist farm families" Yes/No
Was it misleading for the Harper Conservatives to announce a $50million 'investment' to help build beef processing capacity only to change it to a 'loan' three months later?"
Do you share the Liberal view that promises made by government to farmers should be kept?"
THE RECEIVER OF THIS PROPAGANDA CAN EITHER MAIL IN THEIR FEEDBACK OR EMAIL http://feedback.liberal.ca/farmpromises
What say you Western Canada?
Is this more proof that the Liberals are scrambling to build policy that they don't have currently?
The very funny thing about this mailer is that when I first looked at the front of it, with only the words "Broken Promises" on it..I didn't think Harper...I thought it was a shot at Ontario Prem. McGuinty.